There's nothing - absolutely nothing - half so much worth doing
February 2 - 8, 2010
IT WAS Toad’s friend Rat (or Kenneth Graeme for the pedants) who once said, “Believe me, my young friend, there's nothing – absolutely nothing – half so much worth doing as simply messing about in boats”. After two weeks of doing just that I have to heartily agree.
Once bitten, twice worth a try
March 9 - 15, 2010
WHY is it okay to remarry (several times) after a shocking experience(s) but one bad hedging experience, it seems, is enough to have people swear off it for life?
Gold markets and urinals ... How I had to travel to Cape Town to realise the gold market and football stadium urinals have much more in common than it might first appear
February 16 - 22, 2010
FROM a distance it might be easy to imagine Indaba is nothing more than an excuse for Europeans and Canadians to fly south for a brief respite from the winter chills and let’s face it, Cape Town is certainly a fabulous place to do just that. I love the place. If you’re a soccer fan go straight there for the World Cup and skip Johannesburg.
My life was saved by a fridge magnet (others weren’t so lucky)
December 21 - 27, 2009
IT’S TRUE! My life was saved by a fridge magnet. Well not saved as in I was about to die but I was saved from a slow death in a life I had come to enjoy less and less, my life as an employee; a bank employee in particular.
Now it's Peak Gold, oh dear!
December 7 - 13, 2009
I AM not sure how I missed this but scanning some old articles I noticed an interview with The Daily Telegraph in London where Barrick Gold president Aaron Regent said worldwide gold production has finally hit “terminal decline”. In fact he went so far as to argue that we have reached “Peak Gold”.
Dear Weekend AFR editor, please refrain from putting our metal on your cover
November 23 - 29, 2009
THE AFR Weekend Edition ran a cover story on gold the weekend before last. Norman May would have been proud: it was gold, gold, gold and $US2000/oz was nothing to be laughed at. I call on all people who are involved in, or benefit from, gold mining to write to that venerable publication and plead for them to cease and desist. Feel free to copy the following and send it to them.
Are you my mother?
November 9 - 15, 2009
IF YOU are a similar vintage to me, or my parents, then you may recall that 1960s children’s book about the little bird that fell out of the nest and wandered around asking various animals and even an earthmover, “Are you my mother?”. “Are you my mother” came to mind twice last week.
We're from the G20 and we're here to help
October 26 - November 1, 2009
FOR many of us the movement of the Mighty Aussie Dollar (currently not answering to Pacific Peso) is all a bit academic unless we have a French champagne habit or we want to go overseas on holidays. It’s amusing to watch the way politicians take credit for it going up (sign of strong economic management) and then blame “traders” when it falls, but really we don’t care too much. Of course it’s a different story if you are an importer or an exporter.
Aussie dollar giveth, Aussie dollar taketh away
October 12 - 18, 2009
IN THE past 18 months the Aussie dollar has been as high as US98.5c, as low as 60.09c and is now trading at 90.25c, with reports soon expected of party planners getting enquiries for themed 'Parity Parties'.
Pirates to starboard, politicians to port
September 28 - October 4, 2009
I LUNCHED this week with 700 other people at the Brisbane Mining Club. Such was the interest in the speaker Cynthia Carroll CEO of Anglo American that the venue kept being changed as the numbers swelled.
It’s all about the journey, not the destination
September 14 - 20, 2009
LAST year at Diggers & Dealers in Kalgoorlie Noah’s Rule hired “Connie” for the night flight and took a range of clients and “friends of Noah” up for a couple of laps of Kalgoorlie. I was so impressed with the people from the Historical Aircraft Restoration Society (HARS) who look after and fly the plane that I resolved to travel to Diggers on it the following year.
Money for jam
September 7 - 13, 2009
AUGUST 31: I RECENTLY read an interesting article about trends in television shows and what the stations (their advertisers) are demanding. The clear trend is to uplifting and positive “feel good” shows. In short, out with Big Brother and Survivor and in with Master Chef and Random Acts of Kindness.
Green shoots abound in Kalgoorlie
August 24 - 30, 2009
AUGUST 17: THE dust has settled on Kalgoorlie, the Diggers tent and most of the bar maids have left town and I almost feel human again.
Gold loan with a twist
July 20 - 26, 2009
ON THE cocktail list of hedging and derivative products that have been offered up to gold producers over the years there are some very exotic products that have a kick like a mule. Think mescal with a worm. Our advice to clients is wherever you see “exotic” think toxic and lie down until any urge to sip such a cocktail goes away.
California Drowning (as sung by Peter, Michael and Arnie)
July 13 - 19, 2009
JULY 6: SOMEONE once said “life’s not fair”, so why should markets be fair? World equity markets are supposedly approaching “fair value”. I contend markets never trade at fair value. I think it is more reasonable to argue that fair value is simply the line between overvaluation and undervaluation that historians and others draw in afterwards, with perfect hindsight.
7.30 ... time for a close look at gold
June 22 - 28, 2009
THE fact that I feel the need to qualify offering my current “best guess” on the gold market has two key drivers.
The last two hundred days
June 15 - 21, 2009
READERS of previous columns and clients of Noah’s Rule will know we put little faith in forecasting. Some “experts” get it right for a while and become the champion of a particular market movement for a while but the invariably flame out. Anyone heard of Abby Cohen lately?
Tipping point reached as black swans feast on green shoots
May 18 - 24, 2009
I ALWAYS find it fascinating how quickly new words or expressions enter into the popular lexicon, particularly when used by financial experts in the media, and politicians.
Options: expensive compared to what?
May 11 - 17, 2009
IN MY opinion options are the singularly most useful price risk management tool available to corporate hedgers. It is also my experience that they are significantly misunderstood which leads to them either being under-utilised (if used at all) or incorrectly utilised by many corporations.
It's all relative
April 27 - May 3, 2009
A QUARTER of a century ago I started paying interest to foreign exchange markets in a reasonably serious manner. Prior to that all I knew was if you went to America you got more money (and things were cheaper) and if you went to New Zealand you got less money (and everything except dairy products was more expensive). How the world changes! It’s an interesting reminder of the longer term impact of “dirty floats”: think Yuan.
Would you ask your broker where to drill?
April 20 - 26, 2009
APRIL 13: AFTER years of attending various gold and base metals conferences and Diggers and Dealers I attended my first oil and gas conference last week. There were a few familiar faces in the crowd that had made the switch from mining, but otherwise it was a new crowd to me.
Feed the ducks
April 6 - 12, 2009
MARCH 30: ANYBODY who has ever tried to sell a large position in a junior mining stock will know that it has to be done while the stock is rising and demand is strong. As they say, “feed the ducks while they are quacking”. Once everyone else turns seller too, prices fall precipitously on very little volume.
Reverting to the Golden Mean
March 16 - 22, 2009
IN SEVERAL of his presentations at Diggers and Dealers Pierre Lassonde has spoken about the importance of the Dow/Gold Ratio in his strategic thinking about gold. In particular, in the early 2000s when he acquired Normandy and bought back their in-the-money hedge book he was very bullish gold because the ratio was at an all time record high of 40:1.
The Year of Team Ox
February 23 - March 1, 2009
SITTING back and listening to one of the industry’s most entertaining presenters, rapturous audiences were left in no doubt that when it came to “The Mighty Ox” there was oodles of potential oozing from their ground and the hungry horde up north ready to snap up all they could produce. Mr Hegarty was particularly famous for his use of Barrasi quotes and Aussie Rules references to describe the Ox’s brilliant future. “It was only the third quarter and the best was yet to come.”